Assessing the Risk of 100-year Freshwater Floods in the Lamprey River Watershed of New Hampshire Resulting from Changes in Climate and Land Use
Project Description
Coastal communities are confronting the effects of rapid development and associated land use change, while also dealing with the serious impacts of a changing climate. Both factors influence the frequency and magnitude of flood events. As such, local decision-makers and regional planners are seeking improved scientific information regarding flood risk in the context of climate change to use as a basis for guiding development and planning infrastructure investments. In New Hampshire, as in other coastal states, this information is not readily available at local scales. To address this gap, this project will develop and refine a methodology for assessing flood risk associated with land use and climate change scenarios, implement the methodology for the Lamprey River watershed of Great Bay, NH, and demonstrate the use of associated products to support land use decision-making in coastal communities. The core analyses and outputs for this project will include maps at the watershed and municipality scale of the 100-year flood risk boundaries and river discharge at specific locations under selected scenarios. As a result, decision-makers and the public within the watershed will have access to new information regarding local flood risk, and they will be educated about how past and potential future land use patterns and climate change will influence the frequency and spatial extent of flooding.
Throughout the project, a multi-faceted collaborative process will reinforce two-way interactions between the project scientists and the end-users to ensure that the information produced satisfies local decision-making needs. Collaboration with end-users will shape the research approach and results interpretation as well as product development, dissemination, and training. The technical and collaborative methodologies employed for this project will provide a model that can be adapted for use by other National Estuarine Research Reserve sites. Formative evaluation of the scientific approach, the products, and our collaborative efforts via focus groups, and advisory board, and workshops, will inform mid-course corrections. A summative evaluation with data gathered using an electronic survey form and telephone interviews will form the central assessment of the entire project.
Project Duration
1 Aug 2009 to 31 July 2011
Project Investigators
Cameron Wake, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, UNH
Steve Miller, Great Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve
Kathy Mills, Great Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve
Robert Roseen, UNH Stormwater Center; Assistant Research Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, UNH
Fay Rubin, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, UNH
Michael Simpson, Environmental Studies Department, Antioch University New England, Cliff Sinnott, Rockingham Planning Commission
Lisa Townson, UNH Cooperative Extension